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Pak-India peace process

It seems that India and Pakistan have reached back from where they started. The peace process which was started with much hullabaloo few years back has reached yet another stalemate just as predicted by few Pakistani analysts, who at that time were branded as hawks. Alas, time has proved them right as the Indian foreign minister pointed out the other day that the peace process with Pakistan is on a hold. It took the Mumbai terror attacks for the Indian foreign minister to clearly state that the India-Pakistan peace process is no more on or at least is on hold, the fact of the matter is that even when the peace process was in its full swing, it was only Islamabad which was proposing different ideas and proposals for inching forward in the peace process. India remained rigid on all its policies with Pakistan and didn’t move an inch from its stated position. Pakistan, on the other hand, under the leadership of President Pervaz Musharraf almost gave up its legal position on Kashmir.

He also gave a four point formula, abandoning the official Pakistani position to solve the Kashmir problem. However, the Indians refused to even consider them for further negotiation on the subject. The only academic explanation for this indifference on the part of the Indian policy makers was they were following the conflict management approach to the India and Pakistan conflicts where they intended to only manage the conflicts so that they can focus more on trade and commerce which was to help them rise as a power in the region and also improve their image and standing internationally.

Pakistan, on the other hand was following what best can be described as the conflict resolution approach. Under this approach, Pakistan was keen to solve the problem of Kashmir and other related issues such as Saichen, sir creek etc before starting any meaningful economic activity between the two countries. Speaking in terms of the realities on ground, the Indians, since the very start of the peace process were under no pressure to give Pakistan any breathing space or concessions as they thought that the time is on their side. With the increasing improvement in their relationship with the Americans, the Indian policy makers concluded that the Pakistanis are in no position not to reconsider a number of their policies. They also calculated that with the Americans presence in Afghanistan and growing terrorism problem of its own, Pakistan will have no other option but to improve its relationship with India. This is the only explanation one can work out of the will –talk-but-will-not-rush attitude of the Indian policy makers to the peace process with Pakistan. Since, 9/11, terrorism has emerged as the most sensitive issue in international relations. The Americans are especially touchy on the topic. And singing along with the Americans, the Indians have all along pointed fingers to Pakistan as the hub of global terrorism. There have been a number of statements from the Indian side and analysts writings that if another terror attacks takes place, the peace process will end. When the terrorist struck the heart of Indian economic activity, Mumbai, the Indian leadership took less then an hour to blame Pakistan for it. Hardly a sensible way to deal with a country you are engaged in a peace process. Logic demands (but some time logic doesn’t work in international relations, for instance, American attack on Iraq) that the Indian should have contacted the Pakistani leadership and have discussed the problem with them instead of shouting Pakistan is behind it on the Indian electronic media. Although there are a number of unanswered questions about the Indian action and policy on the whole tragedy yet no one questioned its intentions of blaming Pakistan before a thorough investigation. The Indians blamed Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) for master minding the whole thing and also pointed out that there are certain elements with in Pakistan who are behind these attacks. This is a veiled reference to Pakistani supreme intelligence agency the ISI. Although the Indians provided no proofs whatsoever to the Pakistani authorities yet Pakistan carried out a country wide operation against LeT, seizing personnel and shutting down offices, in addition to putting its top leader, Hafiz Saeed under arrest. But this is not enough for the indians who have stated that Pakistan is still not doing enough.

After technical incursion inside Pakistani territory at Lahore and Azad Kashmir, moving the troops, asking the people leaving in the border towns to relocate, recently the Indian foreign minister has said that war with Pakistan was never an option. It seems that the Americans who can not afford the relocation of the Pakistani troops from the western to eastern border which will happen in case of a conflict with India have convinced the Indians to rephrase their statements. Although in the past few days, the Indians have started cooling down, they yet have to supplement their words with actions. However, one ugly truth has come out of this most tragic event. The whole peace process between the two countries is a farce. They still don’t trust each other and think that the other side is playing double game with them hence is not sincere in establishing peace. This is the only logical, if logic has any thing to do with India-Pakistan relations, explanation of the Indian behavior since the Mumbai terror attack. This is writing on the wall, the sooner the Pakistanis read it, the better.